Official National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport indicate a daily minimum of 76-77°F on August 4 under persistent high humidity, scattered cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation typical of early-August subtropical conditions. These factors suppressed radiational cooling relative to the ~78°F climatological average, with the prior day’s 74-75°F low reinforcing trader confidence in the narrow range. The market-implied 99% probability on 76-77°F reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that current atmospheric moisture and storm activity will prevent deeper drops. Clearer skies overnight or an unexpected drier air mass could realistically shift readings into the mid-70s before final resolution, though ensemble spreads assign low likelihood to such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 4?
76-77°F 100.0%
74-75°F 8%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
$14,515 Vol.
$14,515 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
76-77°F 100.0%
74-75°F 8%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
$14,515 Vol.
$14,515 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
$567 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,988 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$1,595 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,100 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$2,127 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$2,618 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,469 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$1,218 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$1,040 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$427 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$367 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport indicate a daily minimum of 76-77°F on August 4 under persistent high humidity, scattered cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation typical of early-August subtropical conditions. These factors suppressed radiational cooling relative to the ~78°F climatological average, with the prior day’s 74-75°F low reinforcing trader confidence in the narrow range. The market-implied 99% probability on 76-77°F reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that current atmospheric moisture and storm activity will prevent deeper drops. Clearer skies overnight or an unexpected drier air mass could realistically shift readings into the mid-70s before final resolution, though ensemble spreads assign low likelihood to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Volume
$14,515End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport indicate a daily minimum of 76-77°F on August 4 under persistent high humidity, scattered cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation typical of early-August subtropical conditions. These factors suppressed radiational cooling relative to the ~78°F climatological average, with the prior day’s 74-75°F low reinforcing trader confidence in the narrow range. The market-implied 99% probability on 76-77°F reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that current atmospheric moisture and storm activity will prevent deeper drops. Clearer skies overnight or an unexpected drier air mass could realistically shift readings into the mid-70s before final resolution, though ensemble spreads assign low likelihood to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,515End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport indicate a daily minimum of 76-77°F on August 4 under persistent high humidity, scattered cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation typical of early-August subtropical conditions. These factors suppressed radiational cooling relative to the ~78°F climatological average, with the prior day’s 74-75°F low reinforcing trader confidence in the narrow range. The market-implied 99% probability on 76-77°F reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that current atmospheric moisture and storm activity will prevent deeper drops. Clearer skies overnight or an unexpected drier air mass could realistically shift readings into the mid-70s before final resolution, though ensemble spreads assign low likelihood to such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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