**Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses project a minimum temperature near 17°C for Milan on September 13, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and high pressure near 1023–1024 hPa.** This setup supports moderate overnight radiative cooling from early-morning readings around 16–18°C without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover that would suppress temperature drops. Hourly observations show the lowest values occurring near dawn before daytime heating raises temperatures to a peak near 26°C. Market-implied odds heavily favor 17°C because multiple authoritative forecasts converge on this threshold, with low dispersion in model runs and no recent shifts from incoming weather systems. Traders assess the narrow uncertainty range around this value against historical September baselines for the Po Valley, where minima typically fall between 15–19°C absent unusual synoptic influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 13?
16°C 9%
12°C 7%
11°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
9%
17°C
-
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 9%
12°C 7%
11°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
$75 Vol.
1%
12°C
$30 Vol.
7%
13°C
$152 Vol.
1%
14°C
$150 Vol.
1%
15°C
$102 Vol.
1%
16°C
$151 Vol.
9%
17°C
$392 Vol.
-
18°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,699 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses project a minimum temperature near 17°C for Milan on September 13, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and high pressure near 1023–1024 hPa.** This setup supports moderate overnight radiative cooling from early-morning readings around 16–18°C without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover that would suppress temperature drops. Hourly observations show the lowest values occurring near dawn before daytime heating raises temperatures to a peak near 26°C. Market-implied odds heavily favor 17°C because multiple authoritative forecasts converge on this threshold, with low dispersion in model runs and no recent shifts from incoming weather systems. Traders assess the narrow uncertainty range around this value against historical September baselines for the Po Valley, where minima typically fall between 15–19°C absent unusual synoptic influences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,078End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses project a minimum temperature near 17°C for Milan on September 13, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and high pressure near 1023–1024 hPa.** This setup supports moderate overnight radiative cooling from early-morning readings around 16–18°C without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover that would suppress temperature drops. Hourly observations show the lowest values occurring near dawn before daytime heating raises temperatures to a peak near 26°C. Market-implied odds heavily favor 17°C because multiple authoritative forecasts converge on this threshold, with low dispersion in model runs and no recent shifts from incoming weather systems. Traders assess the narrow uncertainty range around this value against historical September baselines for the Po Valley, where minima typically fall between 15–19°C absent unusual synoptic influences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,078End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses project a minimum temperature near 17°C for Milan on September 13, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and high pressure near 1023–1024 hPa.** This setup supports moderate overnight radiative cooling from early-morning readings around 16–18°C without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover that would suppress temperature drops. Hourly observations show the lowest values occurring near dawn before daytime heating raises temperatures to a peak near 26°C. Market-implied odds heavily favor 17°C because multiple authoritative forecasts converge on this threshold, with low dispersion in model runs and no recent shifts from incoming weather systems. Traders assess the narrow uncertainty range around this value against historical September baselines for the Po Valley, where minima typically fall between 15–19°C absent unusual synoptic influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions