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Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 83%

Dan Goldman 18%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$11,942 Vol.

Brad Lander 83%

Dan Goldman 18%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$11,942 Vol.

Brad Lander

$4,962 Vol.

83%

Dan Goldman

$2,469 Vol.

18%

Cameron Kasky

$1,591 Vol.

<1%

Alexa Avilés

$1,608 Vol.

<1%

Yuh-Line Niou

$1,313 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by a recent Schoen Cooperman Research poll of likely voters—commissioned by a pro-Goldman super PAC—showing him ahead 47%-42% over incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. Lander's high name recognition in the district's Brooklyn strongholds like Park Slope bolsters his position, augmented by endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and SEIU 32BJ. Goldman, at 18.5%, counters with self-funding millions, a May 11 rally alongside Gov. Kathy Hochul, and today's UFT endorsement, yet traders price in Lander's edge amid progressive vs. establishment tensions. Other candidates trail with negligible support due to limited traction. Late shifts from spending or endorsements could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,942
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by a recent Schoen Cooperman Research poll of likely voters—commissioned by a pro-Goldman super PAC—showing him ahead 47%-42% over incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. Lander's high name recognition in the district's Brooklyn strongholds like Park Slope bolsters his position, augmented by endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and SEIU 32BJ. Goldman, at 18.5%, counters with self-funding millions, a May 11 rally alongside Gov. Kathy Hochul, and today's UFT endorsement, yet traders price in Lander's edge amid progressive vs. establishment tensions. Other candidates trail with negligible support due to limited traction. Late shifts from spending or endorsements could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,942
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 83%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.