Keiko Fujimori secured first place in Peru’s April 12 presidential election with roughly 17 percent of the vote, establishing a lead of more than five points over leftist Roberto Sánchez and conservative Rafael López Aliaga in a field exceeding thirty candidates. This commanding margin stems from her party’s congressional strength, endorsements from eliminated right-wing contenders, and reduced rejection of Fujimorismo following her father’s 2024 death. Official tallies released in mid-May confirmed the gap at approximately 5.15 points, aligning with the overwhelming trader consensus on a Fujimori margin of 5 percent or greater. Potential challenges remain limited to any late administrative adjustments during final certification, though historical precedent and the scale of the current lead make substantial reversals unlikely before the June 7 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 99.6%
Other <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15% <1%
$521,773 Vol.
$521,773 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
100%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
<1%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Other
1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 99.6%
Other <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15% <1%
$521,773 Vol.
$521,773 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$10,673 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$12,077 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$8,344 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$20,070 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,302 Vol.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$162,138 Vol.
100%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$209,115 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Nieto
$16,948 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$20,796 Vol.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,675 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$6,118 Vol.
<1%
Other
$37,298 Vol.
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori secured first place in Peru’s April 12 presidential election with roughly 17 percent of the vote, establishing a lead of more than five points over leftist Roberto Sánchez and conservative Rafael López Aliaga in a field exceeding thirty candidates. This commanding margin stems from her party’s congressional strength, endorsements from eliminated right-wing contenders, and reduced rejection of Fujimorismo following her father’s 2024 death. Official tallies released in mid-May confirmed the gap at approximately 5.15 points, aligning with the overwhelming trader consensus on a Fujimori margin of 5 percent or greater. Potential challenges remain limited to any late administrative adjustments during final certification, though historical precedent and the scale of the current lead make substantial reversals unlikely before the June 7 runoff.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$521,773End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori secured first place in Peru’s April 12 presidential election with roughly 17 percent of the vote, establishing a lead of more than five points over leftist Roberto Sánchez and conservative Rafael López Aliaga in a field exceeding thirty candidates. This commanding margin stems from her party’s congressional strength, endorsements from eliminated right-wing contenders, and reduced rejection of Fujimorismo following her father’s 2024 death. Official tallies released in mid-May confirmed the gap at approximately 5.15 points, aligning with the overwhelming trader consensus on a Fujimori margin of 5 percent or greater. Potential challenges remain limited to any late administrative adjustments during final certification, though historical precedent and the scale of the current lead make substantial reversals unlikely before the June 7 runoff.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$521,773End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori secured first place in Peru’s April 12 presidential election with roughly 17 percent of the vote, establishing a lead of more than five points over leftist Roberto Sánchez and conservative Rafael López Aliaga in a field exceeding thirty candidates. This commanding margin stems from her party’s congressional strength, endorsements from eliminated right-wing contenders, and reduced rejection of Fujimorismo following her father’s 2024 death. Official tallies released in mid-May confirmed the gap at approximately 5.15 points, aligning with the overwhelming trader consensus on a Fujimori margin of 5 percent or greater. Potential challenges remain limited to any late administrative adjustments during final certification, though historical precedent and the scale of the current lead make substantial reversals unlikely before the June 7 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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