Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the clearest edge in recent polling for one of the two Rio de Janeiro Senate seats, reflecting her long-standing name recognition as a former governor and senator amid a fragmented field. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Quaest and Datafolha, place her ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), and others, though technical ties persist among trailing contenders and undecided plus blank votes remain elevated near 40 percent. Right-leaning candidates continue to divide support across parties ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, limiting any single rival's path to first place. Traders price these dynamics through implied probabilities that account for late campaign shifts and turnout patterns in the state's two-seat contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBenedita da Silva 57%
Carlos Jordy 34%
Marcelo Crivella 5.0%
Carlos Portinho 4.0%
$49,901 Vol.
$49,901 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
57%
Carlos Jordy
34%
Marcelo Crivella
5%
Carlos Portinho
4%
Pedro Paulo
3%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Ó Clemente
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Benedita da Silva 57%
Carlos Jordy 34%
Marcelo Crivella 5.0%
Carlos Portinho 4.0%
$49,901 Vol.
$49,901 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
$18,384 Vol.
57%
Carlos Jordy
$10,959 Vol.
34%
Marcelo Crivella
$5,913 Vol.
5%
Carlos Portinho
$3,312 Vol.
4%
Pedro Paulo
$2,658 Vol.
3%
André Monteiro
$816 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$490 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$375 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$763 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$887 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$671 Vol.
<1%
Monica Benicio
$843 Vol.
<1%
Ó Clemente
$1,630 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$845 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$649 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$707 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the clearest edge in recent polling for one of the two Rio de Janeiro Senate seats, reflecting her long-standing name recognition as a former governor and senator amid a fragmented field. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Quaest and Datafolha, place her ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), and others, though technical ties persist among trailing contenders and undecided plus blank votes remain elevated near 40 percent. Right-leaning candidates continue to divide support across parties ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, limiting any single rival's path to first place. Traders price these dynamics through implied probabilities that account for late campaign shifts and turnout patterns in the state's two-seat contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Volume
$49,901End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the clearest edge in recent polling for one of the two Rio de Janeiro Senate seats, reflecting her long-standing name recognition as a former governor and senator amid a fragmented field. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Quaest and Datafolha, place her ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), and others, though technical ties persist among trailing contenders and undecided plus blank votes remain elevated near 40 percent. Right-leaning candidates continue to divide support across parties ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, limiting any single rival's path to first place. Traders price these dynamics through implied probabilities that account for late campaign shifts and turnout patterns in the state's two-seat contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$49,901End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the clearest edge in recent polling for one of the two Rio de Janeiro Senate seats, reflecting her long-standing name recognition as a former governor and senator amid a fragmented field. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Quaest and Datafolha, place her ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), and others, though technical ties persist among trailing contenders and undecided plus blank votes remain elevated near 40 percent. Right-leaning candidates continue to divide support across parties ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, limiting any single rival's path to first place. Traders price these dynamics through implied probabilities that account for late campaign shifts and turnout patterns in the state's two-seat contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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