Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 84% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial race, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages as the sitting executive with established party infrastructure and name recognition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails at 11.5%, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques (PL) and others at negligible levels. Recent polling from September shows mixed results, with some surveys indicating Valmir ahead in stimulated scenarios and others favoring Fábio by margins of 3–20 points, underscoring volatility in voter preferences this close to election day. Campaign activity continues across the state, including rallies and media appearances, as candidates finalize coalitions and address undecided voters in a contest that could head to a potential October 25 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 84%
Valmir de Francisquinho 12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dr. Helton <1%
$29,574 Vol.
$29,574 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fábio
84%
Valmir de Francisquinho
12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 84%
Valmir de Francisquinho 12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dr. Helton <1%
$29,574 Vol.
$29,574 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fábio
$19,025 Vol.
84%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$6,860 Vol.
12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$900 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$634 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 84% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial race, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages as the sitting executive with established party infrastructure and name recognition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails at 11.5%, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques (PL) and others at negligible levels. Recent polling from September shows mixed results, with some surveys indicating Valmir ahead in stimulated scenarios and others favoring Fábio by margins of 3–20 points, underscoring volatility in voter preferences this close to election day. Campaign activity continues across the state, including rallies and media appearances, as candidates finalize coalitions and address undecided voters in a contest that could head to a potential October 25 runoff.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$29,574End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 84% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial race, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages as the sitting executive with established party infrastructure and name recognition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails at 11.5%, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques (PL) and others at negligible levels. Recent polling from September shows mixed results, with some surveys indicating Valmir ahead in stimulated scenarios and others favoring Fábio by margins of 3–20 points, underscoring volatility in voter preferences this close to election day. Campaign activity continues across the state, including rallies and media appearances, as candidates finalize coalitions and address undecided voters in a contest that could head to a potential October 25 runoff.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,574End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 84% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial race, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages as the sitting executive with established party infrastructure and name recognition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails at 11.5%, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques (PL) and others at negligible levels. Recent polling from September shows mixed results, with some surveys indicating Valmir ahead in stimulated scenarios and others favoring Fábio by margins of 3–20 points, underscoring volatility in voter preferences this close to election day. Campaign activity continues across the state, including rallies and media appearances, as candidates finalize coalitions and address undecided voters in a contest that could head to a potential October 25 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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