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icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$321,221 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026
Polymarket

$321,221 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$135,114 Vol.

84%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$20,617 Vol.

72%

Fernando Haddad

$51,472 Vol.

8%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$26,646 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$11,325 Vol.

3%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$76,048 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field headed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who received his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year after the former president became ineligible. Recent national surveys show the two frontrunners statistically tied in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding slim first-round leads while right-wing support consolidates behind Flávio. Additional contenders including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD remain positioned to split conservative votes, raising the possibility that only the top two advance to a second round. Economic indicators, governor endorsements, and any late candidate withdrawals stand out as near-term factors that could shift first-round positioning ahead of the October contest.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$321,221
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field headed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who received his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year after the former president became ineligible. Recent national surveys show the two frontrunners statistically tied in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding slim first-round leads while right-wing support consolidates behind Flávio. Additional contenders including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD remain positioned to split conservative votes, raising the possibility that only the top two advance to a second round. Economic indicators, governor endorsements, and any late candidate withdrawals stand out as near-term factors that could shift first-round positioning ahead of the October contest.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$321,221
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 84%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" has generated $321.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.