Anthropic holds an 87.5% implied probability of leading LiveBench coding at end of October because its Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants currently post the strongest verified scores on closely related coding benchmarks, including high marks on SWE-bench Verified, FrontierSWE, and LiveCodeBench-style tasks. Recent model iterations have demonstrated clear gains in agentic coding, long-horizon software engineering, and contamination-resistant evaluations, widening the gap over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants. Traders see limited near-term upside for competitors given the one-month window and typical release cadences, though any surprise October model drop from OpenAI or Alibaba’s Qwen line could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 88%
OpenAI 10.5%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,723 Vol.
$22,723 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
11%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 88%
OpenAI 10.5%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,723 Vol.
$22,723 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$10,068 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$3,416 Vol.
11%
$746 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$703 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,112 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$489 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$612 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 87.5% implied probability of leading LiveBench coding at end of October because its Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants currently post the strongest verified scores on closely related coding benchmarks, including high marks on SWE-bench Verified, FrontierSWE, and LiveCodeBench-style tasks. Recent model iterations have demonstrated clear gains in agentic coding, long-horizon software engineering, and contamination-resistant evaluations, widening the gap over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants. Traders see limited near-term upside for competitors given the one-month window and typical release cadences, though any surprise October model drop from OpenAI or Alibaba’s Qwen line could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$22,723End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 87.5% implied probability of leading LiveBench coding at end of October because its Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants currently post the strongest verified scores on closely related coding benchmarks, including high marks on SWE-bench Verified, FrontierSWE, and LiveCodeBench-style tasks. Recent model iterations have demonstrated clear gains in agentic coding, long-horizon software engineering, and contamination-resistant evaluations, widening the gap over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants. Traders see limited near-term upside for competitors given the one-month window and typical release cadences, though any surprise October model drop from OpenAI or Alibaba’s Qwen line could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$22,723End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 87.5% implied probability of leading LiveBench coding at end of October because its Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants currently post the strongest verified scores on closely related coding benchmarks, including high marks on SWE-bench Verified, FrontierSWE, and LiveCodeBench-style tasks. Recent model iterations have demonstrated clear gains in agentic coding, long-horizon software engineering, and contamination-resistant evaluations, widening the gap over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants. Traders see limited near-term upside for competitors given the one-month window and typical release cadences, though any surprise October model drop from OpenAI or Alibaba’s Qwen line could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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