Diplomatic normalization with Israel continues to face significant structural barriers among remaining non-recognizing states, primarily due to unresolved elements of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Saudi Arabia, frequently discussed in normalization talks, maintains that recognition requires concrete progress on a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, a condition unchanged in recent bilateral discussions. Other holdouts such as Lebanon, Syria, and several Organization of Islamic Cooperation members show no procedural movement toward formal ties ahead of the June 30 deadline, amid ongoing regional security concerns. Historical expansions under the Abraham Accords succeeded only when U.S.-brokered security guarantees aligned with mutual interests, factors that have not materialized in the current cycle. Absent new announcements or high-level summits before the cutoff, trader focus remains on these entrenched political prerequisites.