No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGavin Newsom 46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%
Jon Ossoff 46%
Kamala Harris 46%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
Gavin Newsom
46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
46%
Jon Ossoff
46%
Kamala Harris
46%
Josh Shapiro
46%
Pete Buttigieg
46%
Jon Stewart
46%
Andy Beshear
46%
Rahm Emanuel
46%
Ro Khanna
46%
Stephen A. Smith
46%
Gavin Newsom 46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%
Jon Ossoff 46%
Kamala Harris 46%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
Gavin Newsom
$0 Vol.
46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$0 Vol.
46%
Jon Ossoff
$0 Vol.
46%
Kamala Harris
$0 Vol.
46%
Josh Shapiro
$0 Vol.
46%
Pete Buttigieg
$0 Vol.
46%
Jon Stewart
$0 Vol.
46%
Andy Beshear
$0 Vol.
46%
Rahm Emanuel
$0 Vol.
46%
Ro Khanna
$0 Vol.
46%
Stephen A. Smith
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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