**The 60% supermajority threshold required for the legislatively referred constitutional amendment, combined with polling showing support dropping below that level when voters are informed of projected local budget shortfalls, underpins the 64% implied probability that it will fail.** Passed by the Republican-led legislature in a June 2026 special session after Governor DeSantis called for property tax relief, the measure would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (inflation-adjusted thereafter), tighten non-homestead assessment caps to 5%, restrict local spending to core services, and phase in benefits for new residents. A Leon County judge ruled the original ballot title and summary biased in August, prompting a court-ordered rewrite to more neutral language. Early polls showed 63-64% support, but later surveys indicated sharp partisan divides and erosion when fiscal impacts were highlighted, leaving the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
32% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/). **The 60% supermajority threshold required for the legislatively referred constitutional amendment, combined with polling showing support dropping below that level when voters are informed of projected local budget shortfalls, underpins the 64% implied probability that it will fail.**
Passed by the Republican-led legislature in a June 2026 special session after Governor DeSantis called for property tax relief, the measure would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (inflation-adjusted thereafter), tighten non-homestead assessment caps to 5%, restrict local spending to core services, and phase in benefits for new residents. A Leon County judge ruled the original ballot title and summary biased in August, prompting a court-ordered rewrite to more neutral language. Early polls showed 63-64% support, but later surveys indicated sharp partisan divides and erosion when fiscal impacts were highlighted, leaving the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,981End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/). **The 60% supermajority threshold required for the legislatively referred constitutional amendment, combined with polling showing support dropping below that level when voters are informed of projected local budget shortfalls, underpins the 64% implied probability that it will fail.**
Passed by the Republican-led legislature in a June 2026 special session after Governor DeSantis called for property tax relief, the measure would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (inflation-adjusted thereafter), tighten non-homestead assessment caps to 5%, restrict local spending to core services, and phase in benefits for new residents. A Leon County judge ruled the original ballot title and summary biased in August, prompting a court-ordered rewrite to more neutral language. Early polls showed 63-64% support, but later surveys indicated sharp partisan divides and erosion when fiscal impacts were highlighted, leaving the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
Volume
$1,981End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 60% supermajority threshold required for the legislatively referred constitutional amendment, combined with polling showing support dropping below that level when voters are informed of projected local budget shortfalls, underpins the 64% implied probability that it will fail.** Passed by the Republican-led legislature in a June 2026 special session after Governor DeSantis called for property tax relief, the measure would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (inflation-adjusted thereafter), tighten non-homestead assessment caps to 5%, restrict local spending to core services, and phase in benefits for new residents. A Leon County judge ruled the original ballot title and summary biased in August, prompting a court-ordered rewrite to more neutral language. Early polls showed 63-64% support, but later surveys indicated sharp partisan divides and erosion when fiscal impacts were highlighted, leaving the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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