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Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

icon for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 61%

New People (NL) 29.2%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.3%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 4.5%

Polymarket

$7,638,013 Vol.

United Russia (ER) 61%

New People (NL) 29.2%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.3%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 4.5%

Polymarket

$7,638,013 Vol.

icon for United Russia (ER)

United Russia (ER)

$2,074,649 Vol.

61%

icon for New People (NL)

New People (NL)

$688,029 Vol.

29%

icon for Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$2,263,868 Vol.

5%

icon for Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$644,817 Vol.

5%

icon for A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$556,743 Vol.

1%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$850,915 Vol.

<1%

icon for Civic Platform (GP)

Civic Platform (GP)

$558,992 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its consistent lead in April polls (35–52% vote intention across FOM and VCIOM surveys) and dominance in single-member districts alongside administrative mobilization advantages. New People has surged as the runner-up in some polls (up to 17% in VCIOM), gaining 3% over recent months amid voter concerns like internet restrictions, fueling its 29% implied probability despite weaker regional networks. Recent United Russia primaries (ending late May) tested turnout via public-sector mobilization, while opposition parties like LDPR and KPRF face internal challenges and Kremlin oversight. High undecided rates (16–20%) and the hybrid electoral system—half proportional lists, half first-past-the-post—underscore uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$7,638,013
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its consistent lead in April polls (35–52% vote intention across FOM and VCIOM surveys) and dominance in single-member districts alongside administrative mobilization advantages. New People has surged as the runner-up in some polls (up to 17% in VCIOM), gaining 3% over recent months amid voter concerns like internet restrictions, fueling its 29% implied probability despite weaker regional networks. Recent United Russia primaries (ending late May) tested turnout via public-sector mobilization, while opposition parties like LDPR and KPRF face internal challenges and Kremlin oversight. High undecided rates (16–20%) and the hybrid electoral system—half proportional lists, half first-past-the-post—underscore uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$7,638,013
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "United Russia (ER)" at 61%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" has generated $7.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is "United Russia (ER)" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.