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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$476,933 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$476,933 Vol.

Polymarket

Roger Stone

$8,746 Vol.

27%

Donald Brodie

$6,245 Vol.

22%

Stefan Brodie

$2,829 Vol.

20%

Ryan Salame

$32,264 Vol.

16%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,554 Vol.

15%

Matt Gaetz

$6,384 Vol.

12%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

11%

Eric Adams

$1,101 Vol.

9%

Young Thug

$4,717 Vol.

7%

Joe Exotic

$5,521 Vol.

7%

Julian Assange

$4,338 Vol.

6%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

6%

Steve Bannon

$8,806 Vol.

5%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,623 Vol.

5%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$25,468 Vol.

4%

Nicolas Maduro

$10,361 Vol.

4%

Diddy

$30,974 Vol.

4%

Edward Snowden

$3,255 Vol.

4%

Derek Chauvin

$27,291 Vol.

4%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$142,227 Vol.

4%

Antoine Massey

$2,480 Vol.

4%

Martin Shkreli

$31,318 Vol.

4%

Andrew Tate

$1,648 Vol.

4%

Roger Ver

$2,872 Vol.

3%

Himself

$13,668 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,621 Vol.

3%

Hunter Biden

$5,719 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$53,100 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, granting pardons or commutations to roughly 1,700 individuals by mid-2026, beginning with nearly all January 6 defendants on inauguration day and extending to participants in the 2020 fake electors effort such as Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Mark Meadows. Additional grants have favored white-collar offenders, political allies, and those with access to informal networks of advocates rather than standard Department of Justice processes. Trader focus on remaining 2026 outcomes centers on patterns of rewarding loyalty, ongoing lobbying by connected figures, and any further proclamations ahead of the 2027 cutoff, including potential symbolic or targeted actions tied to administration priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$476,933
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, granting pardons or commutations to roughly 1,700 individuals by mid-2026, beginning with nearly all January 6 defendants on inauguration day and extending to participants in the 2020 fake electors effort such as Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Mark Meadows. Additional grants have favored white-collar offenders, political allies, and those with access to informal networks of advocates rather than standard Department of Justice processes. Trader focus on remaining 2026 outcomes centers on patterns of rewarding loyalty, ongoing lobbying by connected figures, and any further proclamations ahead of the 2027 cutoff, including potential symbolic or targeted actions tied to administration priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$476,933
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roger Stone" at 27%, followed by "Donald Brodie" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $476.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Roger Stone" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Brodie" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.