Israeli forces have intensified operations in Gaza following the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, conducting 35 percent more attacks in April than in March and expanding territorial control from roughly 53 percent under the prior “yellow line” demarcation to about 64 percent. The most recent notable action occurred on May 16 when an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City eliminated Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Hamas’s top military commander in the enclave. Ceasefire implementation talks remain stalled over Hamas disarmament, prompting Israeli officials to signal possible further ground maneuvers while maintaining pressure through targeted strikes and incremental advances. These developments occur against a backdrop of ongoing low-level clashes and international warnings about permanent territorial division.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$554,851 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
June 30
16%
December 31
35%
$554,851 Vol.
June 30
$54,006 Vol.
16%
December 31
$24,102 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have intensified operations in Gaza following the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, conducting 35 percent more attacks in April than in March and expanding territorial control from roughly 53 percent under the prior “yellow line” demarcation to about 64 percent. The most recent notable action occurred on May 16 when an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City eliminated Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Hamas’s top military commander in the enclave. Ceasefire implementation talks remain stalled over Hamas disarmament, prompting Israeli officials to signal possible further ground maneuvers while maintaining pressure through targeted strikes and incremental advances. These developments occur against a backdrop of ongoing low-level clashes and international warnings about permanent territorial division.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$554,851End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have intensified operations in Gaza following the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, conducting 35 percent more attacks in April than in March and expanding territorial control from roughly 53 percent under the prior “yellow line” demarcation to about 64 percent. The most recent notable action occurred on May 16 when an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City eliminated Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Hamas’s top military commander in the enclave. Ceasefire implementation talks remain stalled over Hamas disarmament, prompting Israeli officials to signal possible further ground maneuvers while maintaining pressure through targeted strikes and incremental advances. These developments occur against a backdrop of ongoing low-level clashes and international warnings about permanent territorial division.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$554,851End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces have intensified operations in Gaza following the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, conducting 35 percent more attacks in April than in March and expanding territorial control from roughly 53 percent under the prior “yellow line” demarcation to about 64 percent. The most recent notable action occurred on May 16 when an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City eliminated Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Hamas’s top military commander in the enclave. Ceasefire implementation talks remain stalled over Hamas disarmament, prompting Israeli officials to signal possible further ground maneuvers while maintaining pressure through targeted strikes and incremental advances. These developments occur against a backdrop of ongoing low-level clashes and international warnings about permanent territorial division.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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