The recent extension of the US- and Israel-mediated ceasefire with Lebanon through early July, combined with Iranian regime efforts to reconstitute missile capabilities and enforce economic controls amid a naval blockade, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against regime collapse by June 30. Despite leadership succession following the February 2026 strikes and ongoing internal preparations for potential unrest, core institutions including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain operational and focused on suppressing dissent rather than fracturing. Historical patterns of regime resilience under external pressure and the absence of widespread defections or mass protests in recent weeks reinforce this outlook. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, renewed military escalation, or sudden domestic upheaval represent the primary pathways that could still shift probabilities before the deadline.