Recent U.S.-Colombia tensions peaked in early 2026 after U.S. operations in Venezuela, when President Trump publicly weighed military steps against Colombia over narcotics flows and exchanged sharp rhetoric with then-President Gustavo Petro. Those frictions eased after Colombia’s June 2026 presidential election produced a decisive victory for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who was inaugurated on August 7. The new administration promptly authorized joint counternarcotics operations, joined the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas coalition, and accepted a pledged $1 billion security package. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to no invasion because current policy reflects aligned interests and consensual military cooperation rather than adversarial confrontation. Remaining variables that could still alter the outlook before year-end include sudden leadership changes, major security incidents outside agreed joint missions, or abrupt shifts in either government’s priorities.