The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and adjusted brackets for inflation but left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure without any reduction. With the 2025 legislative calendar now closed and midterm pressures building, Republican priorities have shifted toward deficit reduction and other fiscal measures rather than additional rate cuts before 2027. Proposals such as inflation indexing advanced by individual lawmakers have failed to advance through Congress despite unified party control, reflecting limited appetite for further changes that could widen budget gaps. Traders therefore assign a 73 percent probability to no cut occurring by the deadline, consistent with the absence of new congressional action or executive momentum in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and adjusted brackets for inflation but left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure without any reduction. With the 2025 legislative calendar now closed and midterm pressures building, Republican priorities have shifted toward deficit reduction and other fiscal measures rather than additional rate cuts before 2027. Proposals such as inflation indexing advanced by individual lawmakers have failed to advance through Congress despite unified party control, reflecting limited appetite for further changes that could widen budget gaps. Traders therefore assign a 73 percent probability to no cut occurring by the deadline, consistent with the absence of new congressional action or executive momentum in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,576End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and adjusted brackets for inflation but left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure without any reduction. With the 2025 legislative calendar now closed and midterm pressures building, Republican priorities have shifted toward deficit reduction and other fiscal measures rather than additional rate cuts before 2027. Proposals such as inflation indexing advanced by individual lawmakers have failed to advance through Congress despite unified party control, reflecting limited appetite for further changes that could widen budget gaps. Traders therefore assign a 73 percent probability to no cut occurring by the deadline, consistent with the absence of new congressional action or executive momentum in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,576End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and adjusted brackets for inflation but left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure without any reduction. With the 2025 legislative calendar now closed and midterm pressures building, Republican priorities have shifted toward deficit reduction and other fiscal measures rather than additional rate cuts before 2027. Proposals such as inflation indexing advanced by individual lawmakers have failed to advance through Congress despite unified party control, reflecting limited appetite for further changes that could widen budget gaps. Traders therefore assign a 73 percent probability to no cut occurring by the deadline, consistent with the absence of new congressional action or executive momentum in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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