Venezuela’s crude oil production has climbed above 1.1 million barrels per day in April 2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year, following U.S. sanctions relief and expanded export licenses granted after the January political transition. This rebound reflects renewed participation by Chevron and trading firms such as Vitol and Trafigura, which have cleared storage constraints and boosted exports to the United States, India, and Europe. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project a gradual rise toward 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day by year-end, contingent on sustained operational continuity and modest infrastructure maintenance. Reaching materially higher thresholds would require accelerated foreign investment and resolution of chronic underinvestment in upstream facilities, factors that remain uncertain amid ongoing regulatory and logistical hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$110,955 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
1.1m
98%
1.2m
74%
1.3m
42%
1.4m
22%
1.5m
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1.7m
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$110,955 Vol.
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$14,523 Vol.
98%
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$9,225 Vol.
74%
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$6,900 Vol.
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1.4m
$16,848 Vol.
22%
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$7,998 Vol.
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$3,757 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela’s crude oil production has climbed above 1.1 million barrels per day in April 2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year, following U.S. sanctions relief and expanded export licenses granted after the January political transition. This rebound reflects renewed participation by Chevron and trading firms such as Vitol and Trafigura, which have cleared storage constraints and boosted exports to the United States, India, and Europe. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project a gradual rise toward 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day by year-end, contingent on sustained operational continuity and modest infrastructure maintenance. Reaching materially higher thresholds would require accelerated foreign investment and resolution of chronic underinvestment in upstream facilities, factors that remain uncertain amid ongoing regulatory and logistical hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$110,955End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela’s crude oil production has climbed above 1.1 million barrels per day in April 2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year, following U.S. sanctions relief and expanded export licenses granted after the January political transition. This rebound reflects renewed participation by Chevron and trading firms such as Vitol and Trafigura, which have cleared storage constraints and boosted exports to the United States, India, and Europe. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project a gradual rise toward 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day by year-end, contingent on sustained operational continuity and modest infrastructure maintenance. Reaching materially higher thresholds would require accelerated foreign investment and resolution of chronic underinvestment in upstream facilities, factors that remain uncertain amid ongoing regulatory and logistical hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$110,955End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Venezuela’s crude oil production has climbed above 1.1 million barrels per day in April 2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year, following U.S. sanctions relief and expanded export licenses granted after the January political transition. This rebound reflects renewed participation by Chevron and trading firms such as Vitol and Trafigura, which have cleared storage constraints and boosted exports to the United States, India, and Europe. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project a gradual rise toward 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day by year-end, contingent on sustained operational continuity and modest infrastructure maintenance. Reaching materially higher thresholds would require accelerated foreign investment and resolution of chronic underinvestment in upstream facilities, factors that remain uncertain amid ongoing regulatory and logistical hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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