Zelenskyy’s X activity (@ZelenskyyUa) has averaged roughly 10–15 posts daily in recent weeks amid sustained diplomatic outreach and wartime updates, producing the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 80–119 bins for the September 29–October 6 window. The period follows his high-volume UN General Assembly schedule of bilateral meetings with U.S. President Trump, European Commission President von der Leyen, and other leaders focused on air defense, sanctions, and de-escalation proposals. Ongoing Russian strikes and Ukrainian long-range responses continue to generate routine situation reports and official statements. Limited scheduled events in the first week of October leave room for variation driven by any sudden diplomatic momentum or intensified battlefield developments, keeping the distribution of implied probabilities relatively even across the central ranges while higher or lower extremes remain less favored.