Current ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Parigi il 16 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Parigi il 16 maggio?
5°C 37%
6°C 37%
7°C 36%
8°C 3.7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 mag 2026
0°C o inferiore
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
25%
6°C
29%
7°C
29%
8°C
4%
9°C
<1%
10°C o superiore
<1%
5°C 37%
6°C 37%
7°C 36%
8°C 3.7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 mag 2026
0°C o inferiore
$28 Vol.
<1%
1°C
$160 Vol.
1%
2°C
$124 Vol.
1%
3°C
$264 Vol.
1%
4°C
$241 Vol.
3%
5°C
$159 Vol.
25%
6°C
$121 Vol.
29%
7°C
$249 Vol.
29%
8°C
$360 Vol.
4%
9°C
$921 Vol.
<1%
10°C o superiore
$2,730 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,356Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,356Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBCurrent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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