Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 36% implied probability to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU-SPD grand coalition's hold since the 2023 repeat election victory. Late April Infratest dimap polling (CDU 19%, Grüne/Die Linke/AfD 18% each, SPD 14%) underscores a fragmented race, with SPD erosion from governance fatigue elevating challengers—yet CDU retains a polling edge amid Berlin's resistance to national AfD surges. Grüne and Linke hover at 22% probabilities each in tight clusters, fueled by progressive voter bases, while recent Civey surveys signal narrowing CDU leads and coalition risks. Summer campaign events and debates loom as key catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 36% implied probability to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU-SPD grand coalition's hold since the 2023 repeat election victory. Late April Infratest dimap polling (CDU 19%, Grüne/Die Linke/AfD 18% each, SPD 14%) underscores a fragmented race, with SPD erosion from governance fatigue elevating challengers—yet CDU retains a polling edge amid Berlin's resistance to national AfD surges. Grüne and Linke hover at 22% probabilities each in tight clusters, fueled by progressive voter bases, while recent Civey surveys signal narrowing CDU leads and coalition risks. Summer campaign events and debates loom as key catalysts.
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 36% implied probability to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU-SPD grand coalition's hold since the 2023 repeat election victory. Late April Infratest dimap polling (CDU 19%, Grüne/Die Linke/AfD 18% each, SPD 14%) underscores a fragmented race, with SPD erosion from governance fatigue elevating challengers—yet CDU retains a polling edge amid Berlin's resistance to national AfD surges. Grüne and Linke hover at 22% probabilities each in tight clusters, fueled by progressive voter bases, while recent Civey surveys signal narrowing CDU leads and coalition risks. Summer campaign events and debates loom as key catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 36% implied probability to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU-SPD grand coalition's hold since the 2023 repeat election victory. Late April Infratest dimap polling (CDU 19%, Grüne/Die Linke/AfD 18% each, SPD 14%) underscores a fragmented race, with SPD erosion from governance fatigue elevating challengers—yet CDU retains a polling edge amid Berlin's resistance to national AfD surges. Grüne and Linke hover at 22% probabilities each in tight clusters, fueled by progressive voter bases, while recent Civey surveys signal narrowing CDU leads and coalition risks. Summer campaign events and debates loom as key catalysts.
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
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