Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,332,722 Vol.
$1,332,722 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,332,722 Vol.
$1,332,722 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
音量
$1,332,722終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$1,332,722終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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