Trader consensus assigns a 90.8% implied probability to a 19°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) evening forecast update on May 13 and converging global models from ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight low of 19°C at the official Pudong International Airport station. Overcast conditions, light winds, and the urban heat island effect—elevating readings 1-2°C above rural surroundings—limit nocturnal radiative cooling from daytime highs near 28°C, aligning with mid-May climatology where lows typically cluster between 18-22°C under neutral ENSO influences. Hong Kong Observatory guidance notes similar overcast skies with a 21°C minimum, but higher-resolution CMA runs favor 19°C. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected clearing skies enabling sharper cooling to 18°C or denser cloud cover holding steady at 20°C; track hourly observations through early May 15 for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 14일 상하이에서 최저 기온?
5월 14일 상하이에서 최저 기온?
20°C 46.0%
19°C 14.5%
18°C 4.5%
15°C 이하 <1%
$14,894 거래량
$14,894 거래량
2026.05.14
15°C 이하
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
5%
19°C
15%
20°C
46%
20°C 46.0%
19°C 14.5%
18°C 4.5%
15°C 이하 <1%
$14,894 거래량
$14,894 거래량
2026.05.14
15°C 이하
$298 거래량
<1%
16°C
$310 거래량
<1%
17°C
$941 거래량
<1%
18°C
$1,162 거래량
5%
19°C
$901 거래량
15%
20°C
$1,034 거래량
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 90.8% implied probability to a 19°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) evening forecast update on May 13 and converging global models from ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight low of 19°C at the official Pudong International Airport station. Overcast conditions, light winds, and the urban heat island effect—elevating readings 1-2°C above rural surroundings—limit nocturnal radiative cooling from daytime highs near 28°C, aligning with mid-May climatology where lows typically cluster between 18-22°C under neutral ENSO influences. Hong Kong Observatory guidance notes similar overcast skies with a 21°C minimum, but higher-resolution CMA runs favor 19°C. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected clearing skies enabling sharper cooling to 18°C or denser cloud cover holding steady at 20°C; track hourly observations through early May 15 for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
거래량
$14,894종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 90.8% implied probability to a 19°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) evening forecast update on May 13 and converging global models from ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight low of 19°C at the official Pudong International Airport station. Overcast conditions, light winds, and the urban heat island effect—elevating readings 1-2°C above rural surroundings—limit nocturnal radiative cooling from daytime highs near 28°C, aligning with mid-May climatology where lows typically cluster between 18-22°C under neutral ENSO influences. Hong Kong Observatory guidance notes similar overcast skies with a 21°C minimum, but higher-resolution CMA runs favor 19°C. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected clearing skies enabling sharper cooling to 18°C or denser cloud cover holding steady at 20°C; track hourly observations through early May 15 for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$14,894종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETTrader consensus assigns a 90.8% implied probability to a 19°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) evening forecast update on May 13 and converging global models from ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight low of 19°C at the official Pudong International Airport station. Overcast conditions, light winds, and the urban heat island effect—elevating readings 1-2°C above rural surroundings—limit nocturnal radiative cooling from daytime highs near 28°C, aligning with mid-May climatology where lows typically cluster between 18-22°C under neutral ENSO influences. Hong Kong Observatory guidance notes similar overcast skies with a 21°C minimum, but higher-resolution CMA runs favor 19°C. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected clearing skies enabling sharper cooling to 18°C or denser cloud cover holding steady at 20°C; track hourly observations through early May 15 for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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