Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner, who took office in January 2025 after winning the prior general election, filed for re-election ahead of the May 8, 2026 deadline and faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4. Early polling shows him leading potential Democratic opponents by wide margins in a district that includes Spokane and rural eastern counties. With the general election set for November 3, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage, limited Democratic recruitment, and absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns that would alter the seat's baseline competitiveness.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,937 거래량
$14,937 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
67%
민주당
27%
$14,937 거래량
$14,937 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,104 거래량
67%
민주당
$7,833 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner, who took office in January 2025 after winning the prior general election, filed for re-election ahead of the May 8, 2026 deadline and faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4. Early polling shows him leading potential Democratic opponents by wide margins in a district that includes Spokane and rural eastern counties. With the general election set for November 3, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage, limited Democratic recruitment, and absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns that would alter the seat's baseline competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$14,937종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner, who took office in January 2025 after winning the prior general election, filed for re-election ahead of the May 8, 2026 deadline and faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4. Early polling shows him leading potential Democratic opponents by wide margins in a district that includes Spokane and rural eastern counties. With the general election set for November 3, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage, limited Democratic recruitment, and absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns that would alter the seat's baseline competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,937종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner, who took office in January 2025 after winning the prior general election, filed for re-election ahead of the May 8, 2026 deadline and faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4. Early polling shows him leading potential Democratic opponents by wide margins in a district that includes Spokane and rural eastern counties. With the general election set for November 3, trader consensus reflects the structural Republican advantage, limited Democratic recruitment, and absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns that would alter the seat's baseline competitiveness.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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