Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 Wol.
$23,490 Wol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 Wol.
$23,490 Wol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
$298 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,183 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,381 Wol.
No
18°C
$1,821 Wol.
No
19°C
$5,531 Wol.
No
20°C
$3,019 Wol.
Yes
21°C
$7,284 Wol.
No
22°C
$703 Wol.
No
23°C
$670 Wol.
No
24°C
$844 Wol.
No
25°C or higher
$757 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$23,490Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$23,490Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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