Ongoing military exchanges between Iran, Israel, and U.S. forces since late February 2026 triggered the initial broad closure of Iranian airspace, which remained largely restricted for commercial transit until a partial eastern reopening in April. Airlines continue rerouting flights around the region due to safety concerns, even as limited domestic and transit operations resume. Traders focus on whether renewed strikes, missile exchanges, or heightened alert levels could prompt another full or major suspension before key deadlines, with regional airspace still subject to frequent NOTAM changes and diplomatic signals from Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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