Ongoing regional tensions stemming from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted Israeli authorities to close national airspace to civilian flights, suspend commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport, and restrict all but approved repatriation flights. Partial reopenings followed in early March with strict capacity limits and special approvals required, though full normal service remained suspended amid Iranian retaliatory threats and broader Middle East airspace disruptions. Recent airline decisions, including Lufthansa Group's planned gradual resumption of flights to Israel in June after safety reviews, signal easing risk assessments. No major new escalations have occurred in the past month, leaving trader consensus focused on whether sustained military alerts or diplomatic shifts will trigger another full closure before the end of May.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$883,873 Vol.
30 jun 2026
May 31
31%
30 de junho
45%
$883,873 Vol.
May 31
$379,800 Vol.
31%
30 de junho
$8,824 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted Israeli authorities to close national airspace to civilian flights, suspend commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport, and restrict all but approved repatriation flights. Partial reopenings followed in early March with strict capacity limits and special approvals required, though full normal service remained suspended amid Iranian retaliatory threats and broader Middle East airspace disruptions. Recent airline decisions, including Lufthansa Group's planned gradual resumption of flights to Israel in June after safety reviews, signal easing risk assessments. No major new escalations have occurred in the past month, leaving trader consensus focused on whether sustained military alerts or diplomatic shifts will trigger another full closure before the end of May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$883,873Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted Israeli authorities to close national airspace to civilian flights, suspend commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport, and restrict all but approved repatriation flights. Partial reopenings followed in early March with strict capacity limits and special approvals required, though full normal service remained suspended amid Iranian retaliatory threats and broader Middle East airspace disruptions. Recent airline decisions, including Lufthansa Group's planned gradual resumption of flights to Israel in June after safety reviews, signal easing risk assessments. No major new escalations have occurred in the past month, leaving trader consensus focused on whether sustained military alerts or diplomatic shifts will trigger another full closure before the end of May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$883,873Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted Israeli authorities to close national airspace to civilian flights, suspend commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport, and restrict all but approved repatriation flights. Partial reopenings followed in early March with strict capacity limits and special approvals required, though full normal service remained suspended amid Iranian retaliatory threats and broader Middle East airspace disruptions. Recent airline decisions, including Lufthansa Group's planned gradual resumption of flights to Israel in June after safety reviews, signal easing risk assessments. No major new escalations have occurred in the past month, leaving trader consensus focused on whether sustained military alerts or diplomatic shifts will trigger another full closure before the end of May.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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