Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO KRG declara independência do Iraque até 31 de dezembro?
O KRG declara independência do Iraque até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$52,813Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,813Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal political divisions within the Kurdistan Regional Government have intensified since the 2025 parliamentary elections, with ongoing deadlock between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan preventing formation of a new regional cabinet more than 18 months later. This stalemate has eroded the KRG’s autonomy, as federal authorities assumed control of oil exports and introduced a nationwide customs system that bypasses Kurdish revenue collection. KRG officials have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and de-escalation amid cross-border strikes tied to the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian tensions, with no legislative action, parliamentary votes, or leadership statements signaling an imminent independence push. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance of a declaration by year-end, reflecting the absence of unified momentum or external conditions that would enable such a step.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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