Official temperature observations from National Weather Service stations in Austin on May 16 confirmed a daily maximum of at least 90°F, driving the market’s 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical late-spring patterns in Central Texas, where southerly flow and high pressure under clear skies commonly push highs into the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical mid-May averages near 85°F provide context for the above-normal reading, while model guidance and real-time surface data showed minimal cooling overnight. Any realistic shift would require an uncommon post-event data revision, an event that occurs infrequently once initial reports are validated.