Current numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature of 16–18 °C for Ankara on May 18, driven by a moderating high-pressure system following an early-May cold spell that suppressed readings 10–14 °C below seasonal norms. Recent observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show daytime highs climbing steadily toward the long-term May average of 22 °C, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow expected to prevent significant warming. This model consensus underpins the market’s leading probabilities clustered around 16–18 °C while acknowledging remaining uncertainty from possible late adjustments in steering patterns or localized downslope warming. Traders are closely monitoring the next 48-hour forecast updates for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing that could tip outcomes toward the tails.