Traders assign strong odds against Donald Trump resigning before December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidents leaving office early and the absence of any confirmed developments that would trigger such an outcome. As the sitting president advancing an agenda focused on immigration enforcement, trade policy, and executive actions, Trump continues to exercise full constitutional authority with no reported health concerns, legal barriers, or party pressure altering that trajectory. The 2026 midterm elections and ongoing legislative priorities further anchor expectations that the administration will complete its scheduled term. While unforeseen events such as sudden medical issues or major scandals could still shift probabilities, current trader consensus aligns with established patterns where voluntary mid-term exits remain exceptional.