Canada's federal government has implemented sharp reductions in temporary resident admissions under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting 385,000 new arrivals compared with much higher prior levels, alongside stabilized permanent resident intakes at 380,000 annually. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in late February and Statistics Canada data from March show these cuts are driving net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset natural increase and permanent inflows, producing flat or slightly negative population growth for 2026 following a similar outcome in 2025. Traders appear to view this policy shift toward lower overall migration volumes as the dominant factor tilting implied probabilities toward a year-over-year decline.