Meloni’s right-wing coalition retains a solid parliamentary majority and has delivered Italy’s longest period of postwar political stability, enabling her to regroup after the March 2026 defeat in the justice referendum without facing a no-confidence vote or snap election. Recent weeks have seen targeted cabinet adjustments and renewed focus on electoral reform aimed at locking in governability through 2027, while opposition parties remain fragmented and lack the numbers to force an immediate change. With national elections still more than a year away, traders see negligible near-term risk of coalition fracture or external pressure sufficient to remove her before the end of June. The only plausible disruptions would involve an unforeseen health event, major scandal, or sudden diplomatic rupture, none of which current evidence indicates are imminent.