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icon for 北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?

北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?

icon for 北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?

北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?

12月 31

12月 31

7% 機率
Polymarket

$75,944 交易量

7% 機率
Polymarket

$75,944 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s recent constitutional amendments, finalized following the February 2026 Workers’ Party Congress and publicly detailed in early May, represent the primary driver behind traders’ 93.5 percent implied probability that no invasion of South Korea will occur before 2027. These changes eliminate all references to reunification, explicitly define the country’s southern border with the Republic of Korea as that of a separate state, and formalize Kim Jong Un’s sole command authority over nuclear forces. The revisions signal Pyongyang’s shift to a “hostile two-state” doctrine focused on deterrence and northern partnerships, particularly expanded military cooperation with Russia, rather than large-scale offensive operations. South Korea’s ongoing pursuit of peaceful coexistence under the Lee Jae Myung administration has elicited no corresponding North Korean mobilization or border buildup indicative of imminent attack. This combination of doctrinal clarity and absence of escalatory signals underpins the current market consensus on sustained stability through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$75,944
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s recent constitutional amendments, finalized following the February 2026 Workers’ Party Congress and publicly detailed in early May, represent the primary driver behind traders’ 93.5 percent implied probability that no invasion of South Korea will occur before 2027. These changes eliminate all references to reunification, explicitly define the country’s southern border with the Republic of Korea as that of a separate state, and formalize Kim Jong Un’s sole command authority over nuclear forces. The revisions signal Pyongyang’s shift to a “hostile two-state” doctrine focused on deterrence and northern partnerships, particularly expanded military cooperation with Russia, rather than large-scale offensive operations. South Korea’s ongoing pursuit of peaceful coexistence under the Lee Jae Myung administration has elicited no corresponding North Korean mobilization or border buildup indicative of imminent attack. This combination of doctrinal clarity and absence of escalatory signals underpins the current market consensus on sustained stability through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$75,944
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "北韓會在2027年前入侵南韓嗎?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?" has generated $75.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?" is "北韓會在2027年前入侵南韓嗎?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "北韓會在2027年之前入侵韓國嗎?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.