North Korea’s March 2026 constitutional amendments, publicized in early May, formally define South Korea as a separate bordering state, eliminate unification references and territorial claims, and remove language casting Seoul as the primary adversary. This step reinforces Pyongyang’s “two hostile states” framework and provides explicit assurances against initiating conflict, consistent with ongoing diplomatic signals from Kim Jong Un’s sister and routine missile tests aimed at deterrence rather than offensive positioning. Traders’ 93.5 percent implied probability for “No” reflects these developments alongside North Korea’s economic constraints, South Korea’s superior conventional forces, and the U.S. alliance commitment that would likely deter any large-scale invasion attempt through 2026. Potential shifts remain possible from sudden leadership changes or major alliance strains, though no mobilization or escalation signals have emerged in recent months.