An approaching cold front and associated thunderstorm activity represent the dominant near-term driver capping Austin’s June 15 high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s according to National Weather Service guidance. Increased cloud cover reduces surface insolation while evaporative cooling from scattered showers and rain-cooled air masses further suppresses afternoon heating, shifting expectations well below the mid-June climatological average high near 93 °F. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 82–86 °F depending on exact timing and coverage of convection, with the market’s tight clustering on 82–85 °F reflecting this uncertainty. Later-day model runs and any overnight adjustments to frontal timing will provide the next key data points before resolution.