Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 交易量
$31,654 交易量
2026-08-31
少于20
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40人以上
17%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 交易量
$31,654 交易量
2026-08-31
少于20
$16,991 交易量
3%
20–23
$5,250 交易量
13%
24–27
$4,156 交易量
19%
28–31
$1,174 交易量
20%
32–35
$3,574 交易量
32%
36–39
$508 交易量
3%
40人以上
$0 交易量
17%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$31,654结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$31,654结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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