Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured a commanding 75.8% in the March 17 primary against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti prevailed decisively in her primary. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the suburban Chicago district as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing its D+3 Partisan Voter Index, Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there, and Casten's 2024 reelection. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of recent polling shifts or national developments favoring Republicans have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant GOP midterm wave, late-breaking scandal, or sharp Conforti momentum could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,788 交易量
$42,788 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$42,788 交易量
$42,788 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$19,798 交易量
96%
共和党
$22,990 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured a commanding 75.8% in the March 17 primary against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti prevailed decisively in her primary. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the suburban Chicago district as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing its D+3 Partisan Voter Index, Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there, and Casten's 2024 reelection. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of recent polling shifts or national developments favoring Republicans have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant GOP midterm wave, late-breaking scandal, or sharp Conforti momentum could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$42,788结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured a commanding 75.8% in the March 17 primary against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti prevailed decisively in her primary. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the suburban Chicago district as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing its D+3 Partisan Voter Index, Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there, and Casten's 2024 reelection. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of recent polling shifts or national developments favoring Republicans have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant GOP midterm wave, late-breaking scandal, or sharp Conforti momentum could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,788结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured a commanding 75.8% in the March 17 primary against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti prevailed decisively in her primary. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the suburban Chicago district as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing its D+3 Partisan Voter Index, Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there, and Casten's 2024 reelection. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of recent polling shifts or national developments favoring Republicans have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant GOP midterm wave, late-breaking scandal, or sharp Conforti momentum could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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