Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 96%. The suburban Chicago seat, spanning portions of Cook and DuPage counties with a Democratic-leaning partisan voter index, delivered Casten an eight-point reelection margin in 2024. His March primary win by over 50 points and substantial fundraising advantage have reinforced this edge, consistent with Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. A national midterm environment favoring Republicans, a significant scandal, or an unusually strong performance by Republican nominee Niki Conforti represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,788 交易量
$42,788 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$42,788 交易量
$42,788 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$19,798 交易量
96%
共和党
$22,990 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 96%. The suburban Chicago seat, spanning portions of Cook and DuPage counties with a Democratic-leaning partisan voter index, delivered Casten an eight-point reelection margin in 2024. His March primary win by over 50 points and substantial fundraising advantage have reinforced this edge, consistent with Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. A national midterm environment favoring Republicans, a significant scandal, or an unusually strong performance by Republican nominee Niki Conforti represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$42,788结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 96%. The suburban Chicago seat, spanning portions of Cook and DuPage counties with a Democratic-leaning partisan voter index, delivered Casten an eight-point reelection margin in 2024. His March primary win by over 50 points and substantial fundraising advantage have reinforced this edge, consistent with Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. A national midterm environment favoring Republicans, a significant scandal, or an unusually strong performance by Republican nominee Niki Conforti represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,788结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 96%. The suburban Chicago seat, spanning portions of Cook and DuPage counties with a Democratic-leaning partisan voter index, delivered Casten an eight-point reelection margin in 2024. His March primary win by over 50 points and substantial fundraising advantage have reinforced this edge, consistent with Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. A national midterm environment favoring Republicans, a significant scandal, or an unusually strong performance by Republican nominee Niki Conforti represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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