US military operations against Venezuela reached a decisive point in early January 2026 when special forces, supported by airstrikes on air defenses and military sites, captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas under narco-terrorism charges. The brief intervention, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting leader, triggered a national state of emergency, and prompted initial steps toward lifting certain US sanctions on oil trade. Since then, trader attention has focused on whether follow-on deployments or expanded ground presence will occur amid ongoing US influence over Venezuelan energy infrastructure and regional security arrangements. Scheduled developments such as potential congressional reviews of military authority, diplomatic negotiations on energy deals, and any reported cartel-related actions in the Caribbean could still shift assessments of additional entries by year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,298,270 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
6%
$1,298,270 Vol.
June 30
$213,507 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Venezuela reached a decisive point in early January 2026 when special forces, supported by airstrikes on air defenses and military sites, captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas under narco-terrorism charges. The brief intervention, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting leader, triggered a national state of emergency, and prompted initial steps toward lifting certain US sanctions on oil trade. Since then, trader attention has focused on whether follow-on deployments or expanded ground presence will occur amid ongoing US influence over Venezuelan energy infrastructure and regional security arrangements. Scheduled developments such as potential congressional reviews of military authority, diplomatic negotiations on energy deals, and any reported cartel-related actions in the Caribbean could still shift assessments of additional entries by year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,298,270End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Venezuela reached a decisive point in early January 2026 when special forces, supported by airstrikes on air defenses and military sites, captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas under narco-terrorism charges. The brief intervention, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting leader, triggered a national state of emergency, and prompted initial steps toward lifting certain US sanctions on oil trade. Since then, trader attention has focused on whether follow-on deployments or expanded ground presence will occur amid ongoing US influence over Venezuelan energy infrastructure and regional security arrangements. Scheduled developments such as potential congressional reviews of military authority, diplomatic negotiations on energy deals, and any reported cartel-related actions in the Caribbean could still shift assessments of additional entries by year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,298,270End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Venezuela reached a decisive point in early January 2026 when special forces, supported by airstrikes on air defenses and military sites, captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas under narco-terrorism charges. The brief intervention, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting leader, triggered a national state of emergency, and prompted initial steps toward lifting certain US sanctions on oil trade. Since then, trader attention has focused on whether follow-on deployments or expanded ground presence will occur amid ongoing US influence over Venezuelan energy infrastructure and regional security arrangements. Scheduled developments such as potential congressional reviews of military authority, diplomatic negotiations on energy deals, and any reported cartel-related actions in the Caribbean could still shift assessments of additional entries by year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions