National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance currently point to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across Austin today, driven by southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture beneath mostly clear skies that allow strong solar heating. This setup keeps the 88°F-or-higher outcome narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent implied probability while the 86–87°F bin sits at 44 percent, with the small gap reflecting uncertainty over peak timing and any late-day convection that could cap temperatures. Mid-May climatology at Austin-Bergstrom shows average highs near 85°F, so today’s conditions represent a modest positive anomaly without frontal suppression or increased cloud cover. Traders are watching the final official maximum reading, which resolves once the daily peak is confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 17?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 17?
86-87°F 54%
88°F or higher 34%
84-85°F 4.3%
69°F or below <1%
$29,341 Vol.
$29,341 Vol.
May 17, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
54%
88°F or higher
34%
86-87°F 54%
88°F or higher 34%
84-85°F 4.3%
69°F or below <1%
$29,341 Vol.
$29,341 Vol.
May 17, 2026
69°F or below
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$3,995 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$5,794 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$658 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$517 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,710 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$2,939 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$3,019 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$2,764 Vol.
54%
88°F or higher
$5,099 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance currently point to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across Austin today, driven by southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture beneath mostly clear skies that allow strong solar heating. This setup keeps the 88°F-or-higher outcome narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent implied probability while the 86–87°F bin sits at 44 percent, with the small gap reflecting uncertainty over peak timing and any late-day convection that could cap temperatures. Mid-May climatology at Austin-Bergstrom shows average highs near 85°F, so today’s conditions represent a modest positive anomaly without frontal suppression or increased cloud cover. Traders are watching the final official maximum reading, which resolves once the daily peak is confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$29,341End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance currently point to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across Austin today, driven by southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture beneath mostly clear skies that allow strong solar heating. This setup keeps the 88°F-or-higher outcome narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent implied probability while the 86–87°F bin sits at 44 percent, with the small gap reflecting uncertainty over peak timing and any late-day convection that could cap temperatures. Mid-May climatology at Austin-Bergstrom shows average highs near 85°F, so today’s conditions represent a modest positive anomaly without frontal suppression or increased cloud cover. Traders are watching the final official maximum reading, which resolves once the daily peak is confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,341End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSNational Weather Service and NOAA model guidance currently point to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across Austin today, driven by southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture beneath mostly clear skies that allow strong solar heating. This setup keeps the 88°F-or-higher outcome narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent implied probability while the 86–87°F bin sits at 44 percent, with the small gap reflecting uncertainty over peak timing and any late-day convection that could cap temperatures. Mid-May climatology at Austin-Bergstrom shows average highs near 85°F, so today’s conditions represent a modest positive anomaly without frontal suppression or increased cloud cover. Traders are watching the final official maximum reading, which resolves once the daily peak is confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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