Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 19?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 19?
86-87°F 16%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 11%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
16%
90°F or higher
38%
86-87°F 16%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 11%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$15 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
9%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$8 Vol.
10%
86-87°F
$15 Vol.
16%
88-89°F
$13 Vol.
16%
90°F or higher
$59 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$119End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$119End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSCurrent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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