Current meteorological forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration place Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on May 18 in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance shows only modest spread, with the 27 °C threshold favored because recent surface observations and upper-air soundings indicate temperatures will peak near that level before a weak front arrives overnight. Historical May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28 °C, so the current setup aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than signaling an anomalous spike or cool outbreak. Traders are therefore monitoring the next updated model runs and official 24-hour forecasts, which will refine the exact peak and determine whether the market settles near the leading 27 °C or 28 °C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
27°C 32%
28°C 25%
26°C 21%
25°C 12%
$26,826 Vol.
$26,826 Vol.
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
12%
26°C
21%
27°C
32%
28°C
25%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 32%
28°C 25%
26°C 21%
25°C 12%
$26,826 Vol.
$26,826 Vol.
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
12%
26°C
21%
27°C
32%
28°C
25%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAACurrent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration place Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on May 18 in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance shows only modest spread, with the 27 °C threshold favored because recent surface observations and upper-air soundings indicate temperatures will peak near that level before a weak front arrives overnight. Historical May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28 °C, so the current setup aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than signaling an anomalous spike or cool outbreak. Traders are therefore monitoring the next updated model runs and official 24-hour forecasts, which will refine the exact peak and determine whether the market settles near the leading 27 °C or 28 °C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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