National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF runs consistently projected a daytime high of 76–78°F for Denver on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow, anchoring the 76–77°F outcome as the near-certain market consensus. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the Front Range, where daytime maxima often peak in the mid-70s absent strong advection or downslope warming. Traders assigned overwhelming probability to this range because observed surface conditions and model consensus left little room for deviation. Only a sharp late-day temperature spike from unexpected clear-sky insolation or revised observational data from Buckley Space Force Base could realistically shift the recorded high into the 78–79°F bin.