Official measurements from the National Weather Service at Houston's primary reporting stations confirmed a daily high temperature of 90°F or above on May 16, producing the market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for an 88°F-or-higher outcome. This result aligned with seasonal warming trends and a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppressed cloud cover and allowed strong solar heating under light southerly flow. Historical May normals near 87°F provide context for the elevated reading, while model consensus in the preceding days had already converged on upper-80s to low-90s conditions. Only an unforeseen post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly could alter the recorded value, though such adjustments remain rare once initial quality-control checks are complete.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 16?
88°F or higher 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$36,831 Vol.
$36,831 Vol.
May 16, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
Yes
88°F or higher 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$36,831 Vol.
$36,831 Vol.
May 16, 2026
69°F or below
$2,386 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$4,319 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$3,797 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$3,568 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$3,352 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,024 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,380 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$2,555 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$4,644 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$4,135 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$5,670 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the National Weather Service at Houston's primary reporting stations confirmed a daily high temperature of 90°F or above on May 16, producing the market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for an 88°F-or-higher outcome. This result aligned with seasonal warming trends and a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppressed cloud cover and allowed strong solar heating under light southerly flow. Historical May normals near 87°F provide context for the elevated reading, while model consensus in the preceding days had already converged on upper-80s to low-90s conditions. Only an unforeseen post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly could alter the recorded value, though such adjustments remain rare once initial quality-control checks are complete.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$36,831End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the National Weather Service at Houston's primary reporting stations confirmed a daily high temperature of 90°F or above on May 16, producing the market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for an 88°F-or-higher outcome. This result aligned with seasonal warming trends and a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppressed cloud cover and allowed strong solar heating under light southerly flow. Historical May normals near 87°F provide context for the elevated reading, while model consensus in the preceding days had already converged on upper-80s to low-90s conditions. Only an unforeseen post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly could alter the recorded value, though such adjustments remain rare once initial quality-control checks are complete.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,831End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official measurements from the National Weather Service at Houston's primary reporting stations confirmed a daily high temperature of 90°F or above on May 16, producing the market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for an 88°F-or-higher outcome. This result aligned with seasonal warming trends and a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppressed cloud cover and allowed strong solar heating under light southerly flow. Historical May normals near 87°F provide context for the elevated reading, while model consensus in the preceding days had already converged on upper-80s to low-90s conditions. Only an unforeseen post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly could alter the recorded value, though such adjustments remain rare once initial quality-control checks are complete.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions