Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 24%
23°C or higher 13.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
24%
21°C
33%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 24%
23°C or higher 13.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$442 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$770 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$891 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$791 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,695 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,076 Vol.
2%
19°C
$729 Vol.
4%
20°C
$264 Vol.
24%
21°C
$392 Vol.
33%
22°C
$304 Vol.
26%
23°C or higher
$692 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,938End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,938End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent short-range forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a daytime maximum in Istanbul near 20–22 °C on 18 May, reflecting a typical late-spring synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 21 °C for mid-May, derived from decades of Turkish State Meteorological Service observations, while also allowing for modest day-to-day variability driven by sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. With model spread remaining narrow and no significant frontal passages expected, traders have concentrated probability on the 20–22 °C bins. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary Istanbul station, with any late-afternoon convective development capable of trimming the peak by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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