Recent meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA models have converged on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-May transitional conditions over the Marmara region, where a mild southeasterly flow moderates temperatures while sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit afternoon peaks near historical averages of 20–23 °C. With resolution tied to official Istanbul Airport observations, traders are weighing minor model spread in wind patterns and cloud cover that could nudge the high into the 20 °C or 23 °C+ buckets. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will clarify these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C or higher 13.7%
NEW
$10,771 Vol.
NEW
$10,771 Vol.
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
6%
20°C
15%
21°C
33%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C or higher 13.7%
NEW
$10,771 Vol.
NEW
$10,771 Vol.
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$589 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$991 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,325 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$873 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,704 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,217 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,209 Vol.
6%
20°C
$505 Vol.
15%
21°C
$533 Vol.
33%
22°C
$462 Vol.
30%
23°C or higher
$1,375 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA models have converged on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-May transitional conditions over the Marmara region, where a mild southeasterly flow moderates temperatures while sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit afternoon peaks near historical averages of 20–23 °C. With resolution tied to official Istanbul Airport observations, traders are weighing minor model spread in wind patterns and cloud cover that could nudge the high into the 20 °C or 23 °C+ buckets. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will clarify these variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$10,771End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA models have converged on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-May transitional conditions over the Marmara region, where a mild southeasterly flow moderates temperatures while sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit afternoon peaks near historical averages of 20–23 °C. With resolution tied to official Istanbul Airport observations, traders are weighing minor model spread in wind patterns and cloud cover that could nudge the high into the 20 °C or 23 °C+ buckets. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will clarify these variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,771End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA models have converged on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-May transitional conditions over the Marmara region, where a mild southeasterly flow moderates temperatures while sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit afternoon peaks near historical averages of 20–23 °C. With resolution tied to official Istanbul Airport observations, traders are weighing minor model spread in wind patterns and cloud cover that could nudge the high into the 20 °C or 23 °C+ buckets. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will clarify these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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