Current ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Moscow's May 19 high will likely peak in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driven by a strong ridge of high pressure promoting southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 18–20°C, placing the projected values several degrees above seasonal norms. Minor model disagreements center on exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could trim peak readings by 1–2°C if afternoon convection develops. With resolution hinging on the official Rosgidromet maximum observed at the central station, traders are weighting the latest 48–72 hour guidance heavily as the final model runs approach.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 19?
30°C 20%
31°C 20%
29°C 20%
32°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
6%
28°C
10%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
20%
32°C or higher
15%
30°C 20%
31°C 20%
29°C 20%
32°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
1%
25°C
$56 Vol.
1%
26°C
$14 Vol.
5%
27°C
$24 Vol.
6%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
20%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Moscow's May 19 high will likely peak in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driven by a strong ridge of high pressure promoting southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 18–20°C, placing the projected values several degrees above seasonal norms. Minor model disagreements center on exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could trim peak readings by 1–2°C if afternoon convection develops. With resolution hinging on the official Rosgidromet maximum observed at the central station, traders are weighting the latest 48–72 hour guidance heavily as the final model runs approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$98End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Moscow's May 19 high will likely peak in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driven by a strong ridge of high pressure promoting southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 18–20°C, placing the projected values several degrees above seasonal norms. Minor model disagreements center on exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could trim peak readings by 1–2°C if afternoon convection develops. With resolution hinging on the official Rosgidromet maximum observed at the central station, traders are weighting the latest 48–72 hour guidance heavily as the final model runs approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$98End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Moscow's May 19 high will likely peak in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driven by a strong ridge of high pressure promoting southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology, where average highs hover near 18–20°C, placing the projected values several degrees above seasonal norms. Minor model disagreements center on exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which could trim peak readings by 1–2°C if afternoon convection develops. With resolution hinging on the official Rosgidromet maximum observed at the central station, traders are weighting the latest 48–72 hour guidance heavily as the final model runs approach.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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