Forecast models from major centers project Moscow's peak temperature on May 18 to reach 27–29°C, driven by southerly warm-air advection and partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any earlier cloud build-up or slight timing shift in a weak front able to cap the maximum near 28°C or push it to 30°C. Mid-May climatology places normal highs near 18–20°C, so current conditions reflect a clear positive anomaly. Traders weigh the latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical variability, where single-day deviations of 5–7°C remain common in late spring. Updated model cycles expected within 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
27°C 24%
29°C 22%
30°C 21%
28°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
12%
27°C
24%
28°C
19%
29°C
22%
30°C
20%
31°C or higher
15%
27°C 24%
29°C 22%
30°C 21%
28°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$540 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$411 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$698 Vol.
1%
24°C
$173 Vol.
1%
25°C
$270 Vol.
3%
26°C
$79 Vol.
12%
27°C
$128 Vol.
24%
28°C
$107 Vol.
19%
29°C
$83 Vol.
22%
30°C
$39 Vol.
20%
31°C or higher
$57 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from major centers project Moscow's peak temperature on May 18 to reach 27–29°C, driven by southerly warm-air advection and partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any earlier cloud build-up or slight timing shift in a weak front able to cap the maximum near 28°C or push it to 30°C. Mid-May climatology places normal highs near 18–20°C, so current conditions reflect a clear positive anomaly. Traders weigh the latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical variability, where single-day deviations of 5–7°C remain common in late spring. Updated model cycles expected within 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,532End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from major centers project Moscow's peak temperature on May 18 to reach 27–29°C, driven by southerly warm-air advection and partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any earlier cloud build-up or slight timing shift in a weak front able to cap the maximum near 28°C or push it to 30°C. Mid-May climatology places normal highs near 18–20°C, so current conditions reflect a clear positive anomaly. Traders weigh the latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical variability, where single-day deviations of 5–7°C remain common in late spring. Updated model cycles expected within 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,532End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETForecast models from major centers project Moscow's peak temperature on May 18 to reach 27–29°C, driven by southerly warm-air advection and partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any earlier cloud build-up or slight timing shift in a weak front able to cap the maximum near 28°C or push it to 30°C. Mid-May climatology places normal highs near 18–20°C, so current conditions reflect a clear positive anomaly. Traders weigh the latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical variability, where single-day deviations of 5–7°C remain common in late spring. Updated model cycles expected within 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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