Seasonal outlooks from Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology indicate temperatures roughly 1 °C above normal across the Makkah region for June 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 37–39 °C. In mid-June, Jeddah experiences peak solar insolation and minimal rainfall, while warm Red Sea surface waters sustain high humidity and modulate daytime maxima through sea-breeze effects. Small differences among 37 °C, 38 °C, and 39 °C outcomes hinge on subtle variations in low-level wind speed, cloud cover, and the strength of northerly versus onshore flow, all of which numerical models resolve with limited precision two days ahead. Historical June maxima average near 36–38 °C, so traders are pricing modest seasonal warming against typical day-to-day variability.