Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature for May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the leading market-implied outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system tracking across the UK. This synoptic pattern favors cooler, showery conditions rather than the warmer anticyclonic setups that have driven recent May highs above 20 °C. Historical climatology for mid-May places the seasonal average maximum around 16–17 °C at London City Airport, so current model consensus reflects a modest negative anomaly. Updated runs later today and tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak value ahead of resolution, with any northward shift in the low potentially lifting temperatures into the upper teens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 18?
Highest temperature in London on May 18?
15°C 43%
16°C 26%
14°C 21%
17°C 6.3%
NEW
$43,770 Vol.
NEW
$43,770 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
21%
15°C
43%
16°C
26%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
2%
15°C 43%
16°C 26%
14°C 21%
17°C 6.3%
NEW
$43,770 Vol.
NEW
$43,770 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$1,891 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$6,300 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,698 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,120 Vol.
2%
13°C
$4,785 Vol.
4%
14°C
$3,601 Vol.
21%
15°C
$3,990 Vol.
43%
16°C
$5,257 Vol.
26%
17°C
$4,261 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$7,046 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature for May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the leading market-implied outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system tracking across the UK. This synoptic pattern favors cooler, showery conditions rather than the warmer anticyclonic setups that have driven recent May highs above 20 °C. Historical climatology for mid-May places the seasonal average maximum around 16–17 °C at London City Airport, so current model consensus reflects a modest negative anomaly. Updated runs later today and tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak value ahead of resolution, with any northward shift in the low potentially lifting temperatures into the upper teens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$43,770End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature for May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the leading market-implied outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system tracking across the UK. This synoptic pattern favors cooler, showery conditions rather than the warmer anticyclonic setups that have driven recent May highs above 20 °C. Historical climatology for mid-May places the seasonal average maximum around 16–17 °C at London City Airport, so current model consensus reflects a modest negative anomaly. Updated runs later today and tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak value ahead of resolution, with any northward shift in the low potentially lifting temperatures into the upper teens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,770End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCEnsemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature for May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the leading market-implied outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system tracking across the UK. This synoptic pattern favors cooler, showery conditions rather than the warmer anticyclonic setups that have driven recent May highs above 20 °C. Historical climatology for mid-May places the seasonal average maximum around 16–17 °C at London City Airport, so current model consensus reflects a modest negative anomaly. Updated runs later today and tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak value ahead of resolution, with any northward shift in the low potentially lifting temperatures into the upper teens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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